Abstrakt

Flood and Land Losses in Northern Vietnam Due to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise

Xuan-Trung Nguyen and Sang-Il Lee

Climate change (CC) has negative effects such as higher frequencies of stronger storms, floods, or droughts. In addition, sea level rise (SLR) poses a major threat to the coastal areas. Nam Dinh Province, Vietnam is an important coastal province in many aspects, located in the extreme-east of the Red River Delta. Recent studies predict an increment of sea level by 9% in this area and it will cause enormous damages to land, properties and people living here. This work predicts the impact of CC and SLR on the floodplain of Nam Dinh Province. The CC & SLR scenarios (A2, B1 & B2) were adopted, and expected future floods were simulated. The maximum sea level rise (65cm for B1, 75cm for B2 and 100cm for A2) were applied to compute the water level change in the river system. The results predict that at least 14.9~17.4% of lands will be lost and farmers will be the most-affected victims.