Abstrakt

Forecasting Of the Electricity Demand in Libya Using Time Series Stochastic Method for Long- Term From 2011-2022.

Salah H. E. Saleh, Ahmed Nassar Mansur,Naji Abdalaziz Ali, Muhammad Nizam, Miftahul Anwar

Forecasting electricity consumption is one of the most important operational issues in order to the use facility systems and power sources optimally. Electricity demand forecasting process will ultimately have an important role in the economic and security of the energy operating system. The objectives of this research are to forecast long-term electricity demand for 2011-2022 and to provide mathematical data that can be used as consideration in deciding a particular policy in the field of electricity supply. Thus, this paper studies a load demand based on quantitative forecasting model using a time Series Stochastic Method. SPSS and EViews7 Software analysis were applied. Application of stochastic time series forecasting based on data from 2000- 2010 and Mathematical analysis indicated a continuous growth of demand for oil and electricity there by increasing cost of energy due to rapid population growth in Libya from 2011-2022.